Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 02 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 02 2013
AUD/USD hits lowest at 0.9158 as RBA retains dovish tone
AUD/USD has been extending its decline post the RBA rate decision, as traders disccount further rate cuts by the central bank going forward. Amid expectations that the rate would be on hold, all the focus was on the wording used by the RBA. Unfortunately for the anxious bulls, there was no surprise on the dovish tone either, with the RBA repeating the old line "the inflation outlook, as currently assessed, may provide some scope for further easing, should that be required to support demand." What is worse, the RBA stated "The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 10 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level", which was a hint that despite the dramatic fall, the currency is still not low enough, thus market is now pricing the fact that a lower AUD may not be an impediment to reduce rates further should that be necessary.
The lowest level so far has been 0.9156, an area that converges with the sequence of lows seen on July 1 and June 24 on the hourly chart. The level is also the 61.8% fib retrac from the 0.9110 to 0.9250 relief rally. It appears as though some bids are emerging now from lows, with the rate up at 0.9170. On the upside, some offers may be clustered at 0.9175 - lows through last US session - ahead of 0.92 round number and 0.9250 - twin top today.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-02 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 09:00 GMT | EMU. PMI Construction (Jun)
2013-07-02 14:00 GMT | USA. Factory Orders (May)
2013-07-02 21:45 GMT | USA. FOMC Member Powell Speech
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-02 04:35 GMT | AUD/USD touches 0.92 handle after RBA
2013-07-02 04:02 GMT | GBP/USD unchanged so far for the week around the 1.52 handle
2013-07-02 02:47 GMT | EUR/JPY testing 130 round bids
2013-07-02 02:46 GMT | NZD/USD, overall bearish risk not eliminated - JPMorgan
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30708 LOW 1.30493 BID 1.30573 ASK 1.30576 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 28:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.3073 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3095 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an exposure of 1.3118 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3046 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3025 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3004 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3073, 1.3095, 1.3118
Support Levels: 1.3046, 1.3025, 1.3004
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52197 LOW 1.51935 BID 1.52082 ASK 1.52091 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.5224 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5248 (R2) and 1.5276 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.5183 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.5155 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.5128 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5224, 1.5248, 1.5276
Support Levels: 1.5183, 1.5155, 1.5128
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.75 LOW 99.51 BID 99.712 ASK 99.717 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 28:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Bearish
Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing up, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Appreciation above the resistance at 99.90 (R1) would likely create bullish momentum and enable next intraday targets at 100.18 (R2) and 100.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 99.47 (S1) would allow further market decline on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 99.18 (S2) and 98.90 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.90, 100.18, 100.45
Support Levels: 99.47, 99.18, 98.90
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
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